Thursday, November 16, 2006

Bad news for the GOP?

The Stranger (a Seattle alternative weekly) has an article by Brian Mann that paints a bleak picture for Republicans. It's no secret that the Democrats generally carry the big cities, but in recent elections it appears the Republicans are now alienating people in the suburbs, as well. If the trend continues, they're going to be left with only white rural voters -- and while the U.S. electoral system gives rural voters disproportionate clout, that won't be enough to save them.

Part of the problem is the rise of blog culture and Internet video sites like YouTube. As Brian points out, it used to be Republicans could run as "stealth" conservatives -- saying one thing to urban crowds and another to rural gatherings. That doesn't work anymore, because every moment is recorded, and any gaffe or contradiction can be almost instantly spread around for people to mock and analyze.

The GOP needs to adapt or die, and a return to "traditional conservative values," as many conservative pundits are arguing, is not going to help. As often happens when a party suffers a major loss, various competing interests are arguing that this proves the party should have been doing what they've been arguing for all along. It'll be interesting to see if the party leadership figures out they need to find a way to appeal to urban moderates, or if they yield to pressure from their base to toe a hard-right line.